The Long Way Back to Ourselves

9.4

The Next Transformation Revolution

This episode presents the thesis that energy was never the real problem, only conversion, and uses the lithium-ion battery, whose stored energy cost more than ten times as much twenty years ago, to show how an industrial learning effect made photovoltaics and storage cheaper faster than practically every energy agency predicted. Energy researcher Vaclav Smil warns that cement, steel, ammonia, and plastic can hardly be electrified, because they need very high temperatures or chemical reaction partners. Elon Musk's scaling thesis on electrification is confirmed at its core, while his timelines proved too optimistic. It closes on the finding that power generation is converting faster than heavy industry and its basic materials.